2014 Quick Hitters (Week 6 NFL Picks)
We’ve almost completed a third of the season and we came away with another winning 11-4 record, let’s get on to the Week 6 NFL Picks. I did not like this previous week one bit because the average number of correct picks in pick ‘em pools was 11 which means that it was a favorite week almost all the way. Don’t get me started on the Detroit Lions who still self-impose losses on themselves and ruin my “Lock of the Week.” There’s no way the public gets to 11 wins this week as there’s all kinds of juicy value plays and intriguing home underdogs. The disappointing New Orleans Saints and emerging Kansas City Chiefs are on a bye.
*Remember that my picks are straight up (MONEYLINE) and vegas lines are merely used to determine whether I’m choosing an upset, favorite or even pick.
Here are my results on the year:
Overall Record: 52-24
Last Week’s Record: 11-4
Record in Thursday Games: 4-1
Record in Sunday Games: 41-19
Record in Sunday Night Games: 1-4
Record in Monday Games: 6-0
Record in Upset Picks: 6-4
Record in Even Picks: 13-7
Record in Favorite Picks: 33-13
Record in “Toss-Up” Picks: 23-14
Record in “Moderate Confidence” Picks: 26-8
Record in “Lock of the Week” Picks: 3-2
*Even picks are classified as opening lines under 2.5 points.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Thursday Night Football)
Vegas Odds: Indianapolis (-1.5)
The Pick: Indianapolis at EVEN
Reason: The Colts should have killed the Ravens last week, but made stupid mistakes to keep their opponents in the game. This is something I expect Andrew Luck and the offense to correct, meaning they will go into Houston on Thursday Night and pull out a win after the Texans’ dramatic loss in Dallas last week.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Vegas Odds: Green Bay (-3)
The Pick: Green Bay as a FAVORITE
Reason: The Packers are rolling after lopsided wins against the Bears and Vikings. I don’t care if Cameron Wake is a beast, Aaron Rodgers can’t be stopped right now and should be able to outduel Ryan Tannehill. Keep it at lower confidence because it is a home underdog coming off a bye week.
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Odds: Baltimore (-1.5)
The Pick: Baltimore at EVEN
Reason: Baltimore was given numerous opportunities to come back against Indianapolis and didn’t get it done all while Tampa Bay was a score away from knocking off the Saints in New Orleans. I like what Mike Glennon is doing with the Bucs, but Baltimore’s defense will be ten times better than what the Saints had out there last week.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Odds: Detroit (-2.5)
The Pick: Detroit as a FAVORITE
Reason: With Calvin Johnson nursing a high ankle sprain, I seriously considered taking the Vikings in an upset, but I’m not quite sold on Teddy Bridgewater yet. The Lions defense is pretty much the opposite of the defense he torched (Atlanta) which will in it’s own keep Detroit in the game. The Lions’ offense has enough weapons without Calvin to win against Minnesota.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Vegas Odds: New England (-2)
The Pick: New England at EVEN
Reason: I think Buffalo’s defense is legit and it’s a shame because even an average defense would help them win more games. Buffalo could have a magic season brewing, but I’m not putting my trust in Kyle Orton to knock off a Patriots team who looked like they’ve figured it out last week.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Vegas Odds: Cleveland (-1)
The Pick: Cleveland at EVEN
Reason: Cleveland is one of those teams I can’t exactly pin down. They make the greatest road comeback of all time (down 25 points) and quite frankly looked like the better team for most of that game. On the other side, Pittsburgh is just as mysterious as they almost lost to Jacksonville at home. I’ll take the home team in a complete toss-up in my opinion.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Odds: Atlanta (-3)
The Pick: Atlanta as a FAVORITE
Reason: Chicago is hurting in the secondary and on the offensive line which played a big role in them losing to the Panthers in dramatic fashion. Plus, Atlanta is a tough place to play, I’ll take Matt Ryan over Jay Cutler anyday. The Falcons made it surprisingly close with the Giants on the road, so it was a big improvement over the shoot-out with the Minnesota Vikings.
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Odds: Arizona (-6)
The Pick: Arizona as a FAVORITE
Reason: If this was almost any other team than the Washington Redskins, I would take the Cardinals to lose in this spot. Not only are they extremely injured on the defensive side, they could possibly start rookie Logan Thomas at quarterback. The Redskins have showed flashes of decent play, but ultimately are a bad team.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday Night Football)
Vegas Odds: Philadelphia (-3.5)
The Pick: NY Giants in an UPSET
Reason: The Eagles are quite possibly the luckiest team in the NFL. They keep racking up non-offensive touchdowns like they’re candy in a trick-or-treat bag. There’s no way that keeps up, meaning the spotlight will shift towards a sputtering offense. This Giants team is rolling with their offense putting up productive numbers every week. Give me the G-Men to take an early advantage in the competitive NFC East.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Vegas Odds: Tennessee (-7)
The Pick: Tennessee as a FAVORITE
Reason: Could the Jaguars win this game? Probably, but until I’m proven otherwise, I’m sticking to my rule of always picking against Jacksonville. If this game was in Jacksonville, I would have taken the Jaguars because the Titans’ loss last week is the type that scars an entire season. Please give Bishop Sankey the ball Tennessee, he’s your best running back.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE PICKS
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Vegas Odds: Denver (-4.5)
The Pick: Denver as a FAVORITE
Reason: The Jets formally gave up on the season last week when they benched underwhelming Geno Smith for the unprepared Michael Vick. How does Vick not prepare for that game? No matter what, this is a bad spot for the Jets to play Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos who should feast on the Jets soft secondary.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Vegas Odds: San Diego (-6.5)
The Pick: Chargers as a FAVORITE
Reason: I don’t know how the Chargers keep looking so darn impressive. They’ve lost their fourth center and have the thinnest corps of running backs in the entire league. Philip Rivers and their defense don’t care as they go out and record the first shutout of the year against the New York Jets. The Raiders are coming off a bye, but I don’t see how they beat this Chargers team with all the chaos that has occurred in Oakland so far.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Odds: Seattle (-9)
The Pick: Seahawks as a FAVORITE
Reason: The Cowboys are riding high after a bizarro overtime home game in which there appeared to be more Texans fans in the stands (how does that happen?). I don’t care what you think about Dallas right now, NEVER pick against Seattle at home. Russell Wilson is playing extremely well right now as well.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (Monday Night Football)
Vegas Odds: San Francisco (-3.5)
The Pick: San Francisco as a FAVORITE
Reason: I’m a perfect 6-0 on Monday Night Football games, so let’s keep this streak going. St. Louis sports fans are all wrapped up with their cherished baseball team, so it won’t be a big deal when their favorite football loses a game at home to the division rival 49ers. The Rams almost came back and did the unthinkable against Philadelphia and aren’t near as bad as everyone thinks. However, the 49ers are better than most people think and I expect them to keep Rams’ quarterback Austin Davis on his heels.
LOCK OF THE WEEK PICK
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Odds: Cincinnati (-7)
The Pick: Cincinnati as a FAVORITE
Reason: Just like New England last week, the Bengals are coming off an embarrassing road loss on national television. It just happen to be to that same New England team who mopped up the Bengals on both sides of the ball. Expect Cincinnati to come back home with a solid plan to stop Cam Newton and the Panthers who have been squeaking by opponents in their three wins. Just maybe the public will get off this game a bit because of how bad the Bengals looked and how the Panthers have been winning.
Week Six Pick Summary: 10 Favorites, 1 Upset and 4 Even Picks
Let me know where you agree and disagree in week six. Good luck and most importantly enjoy the games!