2014 Quick Hitters (Week 10 NFL Picks)
A truly depressing week 9 as I posted a season-low 6-7 record. I’m looking to hit on my “Lock of the Week” and shore up my toss-up picks in the Week 10 NFL Picks. The New England Patriots have done nothing, but prove me wrong (what a shocker from Bill Belichick …). I also think the pretenders are starting to separate themselves from the contenders. The hardest part about me picking these games so early is that I can’ t stay up to date on all of the injury statuses. That would have helped me tremendously on not picking the Cowboys, Texans or Ravens. No excuses though as we have the impressive Indianapolis Colts, tricky Minnesota Vikings, surging New England Patriots, stumbling San Diego Chargers, iffy Washington Redskins and offensively-challenged Houston Texans all on a bye.
*Remember that my picks are straight up (MONEYLINE) and vegas lines are merely used to determine whether I’m choosing an upset, favorite or even pick.
Here are my results on the year:
Overall Record: 86-47-1 (.642)
Last Week’s Record: 6-7
Record in Thursday Games: 8-1.
Record in Sunday Games: 69-36-1
Record in Sunday Night Games: 2-7
Record in Monday Games: 7-3
Record in Upset Picks: 8-11
Record in Even Picks: 19-14
Record in Favorite Picks: 59-22-1
Record in “Toss-Up” Picks: 40-31
Record in “Moderate Confidence” Picks: 41-13
Record in “Lock of the Week” Picks: 5-3-1
*Even picks are classified as opening lines under 2.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Vegas Odds: Kansas City (-2)
The Pick: Kansas City at EVEN
Reason: I’m usually a sucker for those home underdogs, but I can’t bite on this one. Buffalo’s offense is really bad and I don’t trust Kyle Orton one bit. Kansas City has been rolling with five wins in their past six games. The Bills’ defense will make this one close, but the Chiefs are healthier and ultimately a better team.
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
Vegas Odds: Detroit (-3)
The Pick: Detroit as a FAVORITE
Reason: Here are two of the best defensive teams in football going up against average offenses. Detroit will look to get much better on that side of the ball with both Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush back in the line-up after significant time out of the line-up. The public is extremely high on the Dolphins right now, so I would be all over this pick.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Vegas Odds: New Orleans (-3)
The Pick: New Orleans as a FAVORITE
Reason: I really want to take the 49ers in this one because they have to be desperate for a win. However, it’s the Saints at home and their offense looks amazing right now. If San Francisco can’t beat the Rams at home, it’s just too hard for me to take them right now. Roll with the Saints who have one of the best home advantages in football.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Odds: Tampa Bay (-1)
The Pick: Atlanta at EVEN
Reason: This game bugs me a lot because Atlanta couldn’t have looked worse in their meltdown in London, losing a game they really shouldn’t have versus a decent Detroit team. With a bye last week, I have to think their above-average offense can find a way to take out Tampa Bay. The Bucs are making a move to Josh McCown at quarterback which will be somewhat successful against the worst defense in the NFL. I’ll side with the better offense in my pick though.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (Monday Night Football)
Vegas Odds: Philadelphia (-6)
The Pick: Philadelphia as a FAVORITE
Reason: A lot of people would pick the Eagles in this match-up because of Chip Kelly and the offense, but I’m taking them because of their defense. This unit is much improved from last year and the Panthers offensive line is an absolute mess. Mark Sanchez should be able to do enough to give the Eagles a much-needed win to keep the NFC East lead.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE PICKS
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Thursday Night Football)
Vegas Odds: Cincinnati (-5.5)
The Pick: Cincinnati as a FAVORITE
Reason: A couple of mediocre teams with winning records in this one. Both are in the AFC battle for a playoff spot and the loser most likely takes a big step back. AJ Green makes the Cincinnati offense a lot better, so I’m sticking with the Bengals here.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday Night Football)
Vegas Odds: Green Bay (-8)
The Pick: Green Bay as a FAVORITE
Reason: Aaron Rodgers appears to be ok after pulling his hamstring and is reportedly 100 percent. I’m not quite sure if I buy that, but I will buy the Packers to beat a Bears team who stumbled into their week nine bye. The Packers offense should be able to put up a ton of points against a beat up Bears defense.
Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (London, England)
Vegas Odds: Dallas (-9)
The Pick: Dallas as a FAVORITE
Reason: Will Tony Romo play or not play? Some would say it doesn’t make a difference, but I would disagree as Jacksonville sports an improving defense. Their offense is terrible, so this could turn into a low-scoring affair that Americans don’t want to see (good thing it’s in London). I’ll go with Dallas hoping that Romo can play or otherwise there’s a pesky chance of the Jaguars winning.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Vegas Odds: Baltimore (-10)
The Pick: Baltimore as a heavy FAVORITE
Reason: The loss of starting corners has killed the Ravens in road losses to the Bengals and Steelers, but this is still a good team. Especially at home where Baltimore is 3-1 this season. Tennessee can’t figure out who to play at quarterback and seem to be one of those teams that’s season is going in the wrong direction.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Vegas Odds: Denver (-10)
The Pick: Denver as a heavy FAVORITE
Reason: Denver and Peyton Manning have owned the Oakland Raiders. Sure, it provides extreme value to take the Raiders in the upset, but not much value in pick’em pools because if you were to take the Raiders it would be with little confidence. I’m not sure why we’re even talking about it though because it’s not going to happen.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Vegas Odds: Pittsburgh (-1.5)
The Pick: Pittsburgh at EVEN
Reason: I’m playing match-ups in this one as Big Ben should be able to continue his hot streak (six TDs in each of the past two games) against a Jets’ secondary that’s given up the most passing touchdowns in the league. Michael Vick also might not play, meaning Geno Smith will come back off the bench. I’m a little scared of the Steelers having an off day, but I’ll take my chances.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Odds: Seattle (-9.5)
The Pick: Seattle as a heavy FAVORITE
Reason: Believe it or not, the Seahawks public perception is actually down because a few close games against mediocre competition. Advanced metrics still has them as a top-ten team and they’re still one of the best home teams in football. No way you take the Giants in this game.
LOCK OF THE WEEK PICK
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Odds: Arizona (-7.5)
The Pick: Arizona as a FAVORITE
Reason: If the Rams offense still had Brian Quick and a better quarterback, I would consider taking them to beat the Cardinals. The only reason the Rams beat the 49ers last week is because how awful the 49ers offense was. Granted, the defense deserves some of that credit, but their offense was just as bad if not worse. The Cardinals will lose some games because they’re not as good as their 7-1 record, but this week is not one they lose.
Week Ten Pick Summary: 10 Favorites, 0 Upsets and 3 Even Picks
Let me know where you agree and disagree in week ten. Good luck and most importantly enjoy the games!