UFC On Fox 10 Preview

UFC On Fox 10 Preview

The Ultimate Fighting Championship has a #1 Contender fight headlining its Saturday night fight card.  January 25^th at the United Center in Chicago, former UFC Lightweight Champ Benson Henderson will face off against former Strikeforce Lightweight Champ Josh Thomson.  Each guy has a lot at stake for this fight.  Henderson wants a rematch against the guy who took his belt from him and Thomson will want to prove he was not just a champ in Strikeforce, but can be a champ in the UFC, which is the biggest stage in Mixed Martial Arts.  The Co-Main Event will put UFC veteran Gabriel Gonzaga against Stipe Miocic with the winner a fight or two away from a shot at the title.  This main card includes several fighters with Fight of the Night, Submission of the Night and Knockout of the Night on their resumes so this free fight should be good.  Free as in, it is not a Pay Per View event.  As we all know, cable is definitely not free.  That being said, the “pay to much for cable” commercials are great.  If you’ve been living in a box and have not seen any of them yet, check one out here. Direct TV Commercial: Power Outage Side note to this commercial…If the power went down, crime really went up and all that happened to my Dad was he got punched for a can of soup, I would consider that a good thing.  Now back to the real fighting!

Lightweight #1 Contender Fight:  Benson Henderson vs Josh Thomson

“Smooth” Henderson had looked pretty untouchable since he came into the UFC.  Unfortunately he met up with the only guy that has defeated him in the past 6 years.  After Henderson defended his belt 3 times, current Lightweight Champ Anthony Pettis actually made it look easy with his Round 1 finish.  Henderson had gotten by with a split decision in the fight prior against Gilbert Melendez so it’s possible Smooth wasn’t pushing himself hard enough once he got to the top.  You can bet he is now.  He wants that shot again at Pettis and Josh Thomson will not stand in his way.  Henderson isn’t known to finish off his opponents but there aren’t many better pound for pound fighters out there.

Josh Thomson is a former Strikeforce Lightweight Champ so he knows how to win and what it takes to win.  His first fight in the UFC was a TKO against very tough veteran Nate Diaz.  Pettis showed a way to beat Henderson which nobody had done in the UFC.  Thomson showed he can fight at the highest level.  Thomson will try to take advantage of those things but I don’t think his level is high enough for Henderson.  Look for Henderson to push the pace of the fight all 5 rounds like he knows how to for the rematch people want to see against Pettis.

Result:  Henderson over Thomson:  Unanimous Decision

SFTC Prop:  What Will Be The Fight Result?  Benson Henderson: Wins By Decision or Any Other Result

Analysis:  Yes, there is a chance that Thomson, a known striker, can catch Henderson with a solid strike and do damage that way, but I don’t think Henderson will let that happen.  He will control the pace of the fight throwing off Thomson’s ability to land solid strikes and make it a 5 rounder in Smooth’s favor. (Moderate Streak up to W8)

Heavyweight Fight:  Stipe Miocic vs Gabriel Gonzaga

Stipe Miocic should finally get the chance to really prove if the hype about him is true.  He came into the UFC, winning his first 3 fights.  After losing his next fight, which was the first loss of his professional career, he stepped in on short notice to fight and beat Roy Nelson, who at the time was on a solid winning streak of his own.  This win put Miocic back on the radar and now he will see if he can live up to his promise and is ready to take that leap toward contender status.

Gabriel Gonzaga has showed some major promise of his own lately.  The UFC veteran has not just won but finished his opponents off in his last 5 wins.  He is 5-1 in his last 2 years in the UFC and a win over Miocic will show he means Heavyweight business.  Gonzaga’s wins have not been against highly ranked competition and his only loss was to Travis Browne who currently sits at #3.  Anything can happen when the Heavyweights start trading blows, but I think Miocic’s athleticism and power will be more than what Gonzaga can handle.

Result:  Miocic over Gonzaga:  Unanimous Decision

SFTC Prop:  Will BOTH Donald Cerrone AND Stipe Miocic WIN TODAY? Yes:  Cerrone and Miocic both Win or No:  Cerrone and/or Miocic doesn’t Win

Analysis:  This is tough with two fights in the prop.  I firmly believe Cerrone will not only win overall but I feel he will finish the fight before the judges can decide it.  The way heavyweights go at it, sometimes they slug it out.  Not this time.  Not with a very athletic, capable fighter in Miocic.  With Gonzaga in over his head he will be able to fight Gonzaga stand up or use his wrestling background to control him and win the fight in a Unanimous Decision.  I believe Yes both win, but with reservations concerning the Heavyweight fight.  (Low Streak up to W5)

Lightweight Fight:  Donald Cerrone vs Adriano Martins

In the past 3 years Cerrone has lost 3 fights and they are to the current Lightweight Champ and the #5 and #6 ranked Lightweights.  He is 8-3 and is looking to put himself back into those fights with top ranked opponents.  Cerrone is well rounded and can win by knockout or submission.

Adriano Martins is a fighter with little UFC experience and what seems to be a small chance of winning this fight.  He seems to be well rounded with numerous TKO wins to his credit however the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt won by submission in his first UFC fight and won Submission of the Night.  Cerrone is on a different level as a fighter and should prove to be too much for the Brazilian.

Result:  Cerrone over Martins:  Submission in Round 3

Featherweight Fight:  Darren Elkins vs Jeremy Stephens

Darren Elkins comes into this fight with the idea of continuing to rise of the Featherweight rankings for a chance at a title fight.  After dropping from Lightweight to Featherweight, the ground and pound fighter only has 1 loss in the past 2 ½ years and that was to current #1 contender Chad Mendes earlier this year.  That loss was less than a month from his previous fight and he took on the fight in place of someone who was injured.  Although he got beat, that was pretty impressive and he showed some determination as an up and coming fighter.  Elkins is an impressive grappler and his ground and pound will be key to him winning.

Jeremy Stephens has also dropped from Lightweight to Featherweight and is now 2-0.  Stephens is a very experienced, veteran UFC fighter and knows he will have to keep the fight standing to beat Elkins.  Stephens has been out wrestled before by ground fighters and Elkins has the ability to do the same

Result:  Elkins over Stephens:  Unanimous Decision

  UFC On Fox 10 Betting Preview 

Benson Henderson -300 (last night -325) vs Josh Thomson +230 (last night +250)

Stipe Miocic -260 (last night -240) vs Gabriel Gonzaga +200 (last night +190)

Donald Cerrone -185 (last night -225) vs Adriano Martins +150 (last night +175)

Jeremy Stephens -145 (last night-120) vs Darren Elkins +115 (last night-110)

Overnight movement toward the underdogs in 3 of 4.  The only one with more movement to the favorite is Miocic (-260).  I still like Elkins to win and see good value in that pick. A favorites parlay of Henderson, Miocic and Cerrone could pay off well and should win if not for a lucky knockout from Gonzaga.