UFC 171 Preview

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UFC 171 Preview

UFC 171 Preview

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship has a historical championship fight headlining its Saturday night fight card in which ESPN has 2 props for its Streak For The Cash game.  The fight happens on Pay Per View this Saturday night, March 15th at the American Airlines center in Dallas, Texas.  For the first time since 2008, you will definitely see a new Welterweight Champion in the UFC.  #1 Welterweight Contender Johny Hendricks will face off against Robbie Lawler for the recently vacated Welterweight Championship. Hendricks is just 4 months from his controversial Split Decision loss to UFC Legend Georges St. Pierre.  Robbie Lawler has come back to the UFC and with 3 solid wins is the #3 ranked Welterweight and looks ready for this title shot.  The Co-Main Event will match up Welterweights Carlos Condit and Tyron Woodley with the winner getting the next shot at the title to face the winner of Hendricks vs Lawler.  Though not, ESPN Streak for the Cash props, the main event fight card also features Diego Sanchez a regular favorite for fight of the night, former Strikeforce Champ Jake Shields and up and comer Ovince St. Preux.  Are you ready for the UFC 171 preview fight breakdowns?  As UFC announcer Mike Goldberg always says, “Here we go!”

 

Welterweight Championship: 

Johny Hendricks vs Robbie Lawler

 

Hendricks seems to have the look of a champion in his eyes.  Since he entered the UFC he’s been nearly flawless and he showed his championship pedigree in his title fight with St. Pierre in November.  UFC President Dana White even said the only round St. Pierre won was the 3rd but the judges didn’t see it that way, awarding the win to St. Pierre and leaving Hendricks crumpled on the ground.  I don’t doubt for one minute that hasn’t eaten at the tough Oklahoma born Division I wrestling champ everyday since and caused him to work even harder.  I believe this is his time but every moment in the octagon is a different animal.

Robbie Lawler has been in the fight game for a long time.  He started in the UFC at age 20, worked his way up the ladder but after losing 2 in a row to 2 very solid fighters including an eventual champion in Evan Tanner, Lawler left the UFC.  9 years later he has returned and is 3-0 with 2 knockouts and a decision win over the #4 Welterweight Rory McDonald.  His strong return has put him right in the middle of the Welterweight title picture.  Actually face to face with it.  Both guys are brawlers and can knock you out, both can grapple, but I think Hendricks has a slight edge in both categories.  Plus with his conditioning and being the only guy to push St. Pierre to the edge, I think Hendricks will claim the title he was meant to claim in November.

Result:  Hendricks over Lawler:  TKO Round 4

SFTC Prop:  What Will Be The Fight Result?  Johny Hendricks: Wins By KO, TKO or DQ or Any Other Result

Analysis:  Any Other Result always looks good in MMA because of the chance for a knockout.  And Lawler is very capable of doing that but the problem is, Hendricks has never been knocked out. So then you wonder, can Lawler make it all 5 rounds and win or lose a decision?  I don’t think so.  Hendricks proved he had gas in the tank for a 5 round battle against St. Pierre and I’m convinced he is fired up for this fight.  Hendricks will look to avoid Lawler’s knockout power, use his superior grappling to get the fight to the ground and will win by TKO. (Moderate Streak up to W5)

Update:

AOR would mean:

1. Hendricks submits Lawler, (Which is not going to happen. Hendricks has 1 submission victory in his career which ironically happened 6 years ago today.)
2. Hendricks wins by decision (I don’t think Lawler will last that long. He’s never had a 5 round fight and only 6 of his 32 fights have ever gone the 3 round distance.)
3. Lawler wins outright somehow (Lawler has knockout power and if he catches Hendricks with that punch, it could be over. This is more likely then the other to options.)

I feel like Hendricks will win this fight and the odds back that up. I also feel like Hendricks will finish it before the 5th round and the odds back that up. Finally I feel like Hendricks will finish by KO or TKO and not by a submission and the odds back that up.

 What Will Be The Fight Result?  Johny Hendricks: Wins By KO, TKO or DQ

 

Welterweight Title Eliminator: 

Carlos Condit vs Tyron Woodley

 

Condit has been one of the best Welterweights in the world ever since his days as champion in the WEC.  Yes Condit has lost 2 of his last 3 fights.  But they were both decisions.  And both were 5 round Fight of the Night battles.  And 1 was to former Welterweight Champ and UFC Legend Georges St. Pierre and the other was the favorite for the Welterweight Championship in the Co-Main Event fight, Johny Hendricks.  Condit was the Interim Welterweight Champion while St. Pierre was recovering from surgery after he defeated Nick Diaz in a Unanimous Decision.  You can bet Condit wants another shot at the title because he has been so close.

Woodley has come out of nowhere but definitely got on the map with a knockout of UFC Veteran Josh Koscheck.  The Koscheck fight was impressive but 1 punch knockouts can come from most anyone and Koscheck might be nearing the end of his UFC career.  It just seems like Woodley might be a little out of his league against Condit.  Or he could just be coming into his prime…?  That’s what makes this fight so good, but I think Condit is the better fighter.

Result:  Condit over Woodley:  Unanimous Decision

SFTC Prop:  Who will win this fight?  Carlos Condit or Tyron Woodley

Analysis:  Woodley is a big boy and is very strong.  Condit is very experienced and a very good fighter.  Condit will know how to counter Woodley and how to stay away from his 1 punch knockout power.   I expect Condit to keep Woodley on edge and control the fight to wear down the larger fighter and win in a decision.  (Moderate Streak up to W10)

SFTC Prop:  Who will win this fight?  Carlos Condit

 

 

UFC 171 Betting Preview

Johny Hendricks vs Robbie Lawler

Hendricks: (Friday Night: -340 Saturday: 730pm ET -375)

Update:  Saturday 1030pm ET -450

Lawler: (Friday Night: +280 Saturday: 730pm ET +285)

Update:  Saturday 1030pm ET +325

 

Hendricks to win inside distance (-125)

Hendricks to win by KO, TKO or DQ (Even)

Hendricks to win by Decision (+225)

Hendricks to win by Submission (+1000)

Total Rounds: 3 1/2 (Under: -140) (Over: Even)

Analysis:  Looks like Hendricks to win inside distance and by KO, TKO or DQ has better odds than all the other options.  There is some solid value in a Lawler win at+285 if he can get a knockout which is never out of the question in MMA.

 

Carlos Condit vs Tyron Woodley

Condit: (Friday Night: -160 Saturday:730pm ET -190)

Update:  Saturday 1030pm ET -205

Woodley: (Friday Night: +140 Saturday:730pm ET +155)

Update:  Saturday 1030pm ET +165

Analysis:  Condit to win straight up has gone from -160 to -190 since last night and now to -205 an hour before fight time.  Condit looks like a solid win.  Jump on him straight up before it goes up anymore.

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