UFC 169 Preview: Barao vs Faber; Aldo vs Lamas

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UFC 169 Preview:  Barao vs Faber; Aldo vs Lamas

UFC 169 Preview

Are you ready for the big event this weekend in New York/New Jersey that everyone is talking about!!??  No, I’m not talking about the Super Bowl.  Dana White and the UFC have again put together a Fight Card for Super Bowl Weekend and this should be a good one.  The Ultimate Fighting Championship has two, yes count them one, two!! championship fights headlining its Saturday night fight card.  The fight happens on Pay Per View this Saturday night, February 1st at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.  Bantamweight Champ Renan Barao will meet Uriah Faber for a rematch of their championship fight from a year and a half ago. The Co-Main Event will see Featherweight Champ Jose Aldo face off against up and coming fighter Ricardo Lamas.  The Fight Card will also include two MMA Heavyweight legends facing off, a Flyweight fight between two guys looking for a title shot and a Lightweight bout that could be “Fight of the Night”.  Be sure to check out the You Tube highlight videos for some of the fighters!  Let’s Get It On!!


UFC 169 Bantamweight Championship Preview :  Renan Barao vs Uriah Faber

Barao vs Faber…The Rematch!  Barao beat Faber to gain the Interim Bantamweight belt but after 2 more decisive wins since the Faber fight, Barao has been awarded the Undisputed Bantamweight Championship.  That is because former champ Dominick Cruz has not been able to fight due to injuries.  The guy is a proven winner and just seems to be getting better.  His last two fights he has won Knockout of the Night and Submission of the Night.  Other than that he has won 32 straight fights over 8 plus years in his MMA career including 6-0 in the UFC.  Faber is a wrestler, Barao has excellent takedown defense.  Barao has excellent boxing skills and is just the better fighter in too many areas.

Barao Highlight

It is confirmed Faber was injured in the first round of the previous fight with Barao.  Does that make an excuse…no, but he appears to be ready for this rematch.  Unfortunately he took this fight on short notice since Cruz had to pull out due to injury.  That can give Faber another excuse but it won’t help him once he steps in the Octagon.  That’s the last place excuses count!  Luckily, Faber appears to be ready after he went 4-0 in 2013 with 3 submissions.  Faber has an excellent ground game and will want to work that to his advantage.  If he can’t, the addition of premier kickboxer Duane Ludwig to his training staff will help him square off against Barao, but I think the Brazilian will be able to solidly win like he did before and retain the Bantamweight belt.

Faber Highlights

Result:  Barao over Faber:  Unanimous Decision

SFTC Prop:  Who will WIN this FIGHT?  Renan Barao or Uriah Faber

Analysis:  I would have reservations about Barao if it was asking for KO or TKO like in the Aldo prop but since this is straight up I feel very confident in Barao beating Faber.

UFC 169 Featherweight Championship Preview:  Jose Aldo vs Ricardo Lamas

Yes Aldo is beatable.  He did lose once…in 2005…in the heavier Lightweight Division.  That was almost 9 years ago.  Give the kid a break, he was only 18 years old at the time.  Since then he has defeated the who’s who of great MMA fighters including Uriah Faber and I really don’t think Ricardo Lamas will get in his way at UFC 169.  Aldo is considered the #2 pound for pound fighter in the world and my only question for this fight is will he finish Lamas or just dominate him into a unanimous decision.

Aldo Highlights

Don’t let Jose Aldo fool you.  Ricardo Lamas is a good fighter.  There hasn’t been any other Featherweight rise up the ranks more impressively to deserve a shot at the title.  With 2 knockouts, 1 submission and 1 decision, Lamas jumped up into the title conversation.  Unfortunately, it appears to be a one sided conversation with Aldo doing all the talking.  Lamas is a good tough fighter who hasn’t been knocked out in 3 years but look for Aldo to take advantage of his quick, accurate and very dangerous striking to finish Lamas off.

Lamas Highlights

Result:  Aldo over Lamas:  TKO Round 3

SFTC Prop:  What Will Be The Fight Result?  Jose Aldo Wins By KO, TKO or DQ or Any Other Result

Analysis:  I put together this preview before Streak Manager had put up the props and I stick by my decision although I’m not nearly as confident about this as I am about Barao. Aldo will win this fight, the only question is how. Lamas hasn’t been finished in 3 years but if anyone can do it Aldo can. 

UFC 169 Heavyweight Fight Preview:  Allistair Overeem vs Frank Mir

Allistair Overeem came into the UFC with a lot of hype and simply has not delivered.  When you are failing drug tests and coming up positive for PED’s AND losing matches, you are going to lose a lot of momentum from the hype you initially brought to the Octagon.  Overeem was a championing before the UFC and seemed to be heading that same direction after his knockout of Brock Lesnar in his first UFC fight.  Then the drug testing came into question and 2 years and 2 losses later, he’s looking at maybe his last fight in the UFC…Unless we see the Allistair Overeem we expected to see coming into the UFC.

Overeem Highlights

This is one guy you don’t want to see in a dark alley or any alley ever, that’s for sure.  If he can keep this fight standing against Mir and they slug this out like Heavyweights tend to do, Overeem has a good chance of winning and extending his UFC career.

Former UFC Heavyweight champ Frank Mir has been in the UFC for a looooonnnngg time.  He started 13 years ago as a 21 year old and put together a solid 14-8 record in the highest level of fighting on the planet.  However, he appears to be on his last legs.  He has lost his last 3 fights, although against solid top notch opponents, in the UFC if you’re not winning or even competitive, you aren’t going to be around long.  Mir has a huge edge over Overeem on the ground but that’s if he can get the large beast of a man to the ground.  Mir has trained more lately in his stand up and for that reason, wants to trade punches and kicks and that could get him in trouble here.  I see Overeem being able to keep Mir away from the takedown, making Mir trade punches and Overeem finishing Mir, sending the former UFC Champ to full time TV commentator.

Mir Highlights

Result:  Overeem over Mir:  TKO Round 1

UFC 169 Flyweight Fight Preview:  Ali Bagauntinov vs John Lineker

UFC Flyweight Champ Demetrious Johnson is looking for a challenger.  And we might just find it with the winner of this fight.  Ali Baguntinov has looked good in his first 2 UFC fights and comes from Russia with a solid fight resume.  The 28 year old looks primed to take the next step against Lineker. He has solid stand up as demonstrated in his TKO victory in his first UFC fight and his Sambo background gives him an excellent advantage on the ground.

John Lineker is no slouch, unless he can’t make weight.  Which means he has slouched on his training.  That doesn’t take away from his 3 last fights all won by TKO but it still doesn’t look good.  If for some reason he doesn’t make weight for this fight, the UFC is not going to keep giving him Flyweight chances.  Chances he deserves, but only if he makes weight.

Lineker is the more experienced fighter with fights against more solid fighters but I think the weight cut will ultimately affect him and Bagautinov will have his way with him.

Result:  Bagautinov over Lineker:  TKO Round 3

UFC 169 Lightweight Fight Preview:  Jamie Varner vs Abel Trujillo

This lightweight match will hopefully get UFC 169 started off on a good note.  Former WEC Lightweight Champ Varner has looked solid lately back in the UFC while Trujillo has had a decent run against a mixed ability of fighters.  Varner is a proven, solid striker as well as a dominant wrestler.  Trujillo has the ability to get the knockout but Varner has the reach and should be able to get the takedowns to keep Trujillo out of step for the solid striking he will want to use.  Trujillo will need to pressure Varner more than being pressured by him but that is easier said then done.

Result:  Varner over Trujillo:  Unanimous Decision


UFC 169 Betting Preview

Renan Barao -365 (As of Friday Night-285) vs Uriah Faber +275 (As of Friday Night+225)

Jose Aldo -800 (-700) vs Ricardo Lamas+500 (+450)

Allistair Overeem -450(-365) vs Frank Mir+325 (+275)

Ali Bagautinov -155(-145) vs John Lineker +125 (+115)

Jamie Varner -125(-140) vs Abel Trujillo -105(+110)

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