Streak Journal: Vegas owned college basketball on SFTC this past week
Welcome to the fifth installment of my newest weekly feature. The Streak Journal will analyze a group of specific Streak for the Cash (SFTC) props from the previous week.
The purpose of this new journal is to provide streakers with a unique perspective of the props picked by ESPN’s Streakmaster and give you the straight statistics which will hopefully provide some insight to help you build a longer streak.
First Week: Beware of the NBA’s back-to-backs (Jan. 20th-26th)
Second Week: Is March Madness here early (Jan. 27th-Feb. 2nd)
Third Week: Heavy favorites are no sure thing in NHL props (Feb. 3rd-Feb. 9th)
Fourth Week: No such thing as a 99% curse on Streak for the Cash
This week (Monday, February 17th through Sunday, February 23), I focused on straight up college basketball props because learning from these will provide streakers with the most help going in to the month of March. When I took a look at college basketball in the second week of the Streak Journal, it was straight chaos. Not so much this time around:
Vegas Favorite/Underdog – Lines obtained from 5dimes to determine favorite in match-ups
Streak Favorite/Underdog – Determined by the percentage chosen on each team as the prop locked up
Better Record – The team with more wins and less losses during the prop.
*These statistics are based on 38 straight-up college basketball props on ESPN’s Streak for the Cash. I can’t guarantee that this sample size will represent the entire population of future props.
STRAIGHT BUT SIMPLE NUMBERS (Don’t Pick Only on These Parameters)
Home Team 23-16
Away Team 16-23
Vegas Favorite 30-9
Vegas Underdog 9-30
Streak Favorite 26-13
Streak Underdog 13-26
Better Record 19-19
Worse Record 19-19
VARIABILITY REIGNS KING IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL
A huge reason we’ve seen a W29 and W28 on the leaderboard is because college basketball has been a great sport to pick over the last couple of weeks. In fact, the active leader at W28 has picked 22 of his 28 straight picks on the sport. Entry BAYLOR is an astounding 24-4 picking NCB this month! However, that’s me digressing and envying the leader. I’m here to talk about the ridiculous shift the sport has made since the last time I looked at it. Back in the beginning of the February, Vegas favorites went 10-14 in college basketball, this time improving all the way to an unheard of 30-9. Hindsight is always better, but this month would have been a great one to sit back and wait for the feel-good picks.
WHAT’S WITH THIS HOT/WARMER/WARM/COLD BUSINESS?
I’ve played this game for a few years now and have never payed any attention to whether a prop is hot or cold… The temperature designation lets pickers know how many other pickers are choosing a particular prop. Here’s how the college basketball props broke down split by this designation:
HOT – Vegas Favorite (6-1) Streak Favorite (5-2)
WARMER – Vegas Favorite (11-2) Streak Favorite (7-6)
WARM – Vegas Favorite (5-4) Streak Favorite (7-2)
COLD – Vegas Favorite (8-2) Streak Favorite (7-3)
The crazy part about this week is that Vegas gave Streakers a whooping and that’s not usually the case for this game. Streakers usually align their selves with Vegas and almost always pick the favorites. Streakers diverted away from Vegas on numerous occasions, specifically in the “WARMER” designation where they just plain ignored the lines and went with the perceived better team.
As usual with college basketball, my best advice is to use Vegas to your advantage. The best teams to pick are those that are vastly underrated (usually slightly favored by Vegas) and those teams who are very good/on the road (also slightly favored by Vegas). It’s not always about the big lines in this game.
Next week, I’ll turn my analytical mind back to the NBA because basketball will be the key to winning Streak for the Cash in the month of March.
Is this analysis helping you at all? Please let me know by shooting me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org because I’m always in the mood to discuss Streak For the Cash!