Streak Journal: Streakers starting to fall behind Vegas on NBA Props
Welcome to the seventh installment of my newest weekly feature. The Streak Journal will analyze a group of specific Streak for the Cash (SFTC) props from the previous week.
The purpose of this new journal is to provide streakers with a unique perspective of the props picked by ESPN’s Streakmaster and give you the straight statistics which will hopefully provide some insight to help you build a longer streak.
First Week: Beware of the NBA’s back-to-backs (Jan. 20th-26th)
Second Week: Is March Madness here early (Jan. 27th-Feb. 2nd)
Third Week: Heavy favorites are no sure thing in NHL props (Feb. 3rd-Feb. 9th)
Fourth Week: No such thing as a 99% curse on Streak for the Cash (Feb. 10th-Feb.16th)
Fifth Week: Vegas owned college basketball on SFTC this past week (Feb. 17th -23rd)
Sixth Week: NBA could be the most predictable on SFTC (Feb. 24th – Mar. 2nd)
This week (Monday, March 3rd through Sunday, March 9th), I continued to focus on straight up NBA match-ups because I want to build a larger sample size in order to make see if we can come up with some better risk analysis in regards to NBA props. We had 23 match-ups the first week and oddly enough another 23 for the second week. Here’s where we stand so far:
Vegas Favorite/Underdog – Lines obtained from 5dimes to determine favorite in match-ups
Streak Favorite/Underdog – Determined by the percentage chosen on each team as the prop locked up
Better Record – The team with more wins and less losses during the prop.
*These statistics are based on 46 straight-up NBA props on ESPN’s Streak for the Cash. I can’t guarantee that this sample size will represent the entire population of future props.
STRAIGHT BUT SIMPLE NUMBERS (Don’t Pick Only on These Parameters)
Home Team 25-21
Away Team 21-25
Vegas Favorite 34-12
Vegas Underdog 12-34
Streak Favorite 24-22
Streak Underdog 22-24
Better Record 23-22
Worse Record 22-23
STREAKERS MUST HAVE STOPPED DOING THEIR RESEARCH
After an impressive 10-0 on “HOT” and “WARMER” props the first week, Streakers went the opposite direction this week with 1-6 record in “HOT” and “WARMER” props. Vegas went 2-5 on these same props, so it could be that the Streakmaster was a lot better at picking props that appear to be one-sided, but are not at all. Vegas is still killing it and you’re a lot better off by picking the Vegas favorite that’s an astounding 34-12 over the last two weeks.
ANY NBA MONEYLINE -200 OR OVER HAS BEEN A SFTC LOCK
Seeing that Vegas has went 34-12 on the 46 props selected for SFTC, the best thing to examine going forward is their lines and how it can help us better predict match-ups.. Here’s how it’s been over the past two weeks:
(-100 to -149) 15-7
(-150 to -199) 13-5
(-200 to -299) 5-0
After having a shocking five games over -200 last week, the Streakmaster wised up and put only one this week. And sure enough, the T-Wolves (-215) came through against the lowly Nuggets but not without a late surge that put some scare in to streakers.
PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE
The hardest part about playing SFTC is preserving a streak by not making a pick. We become so addicted to the game that we feel we have to make a pick everyday. However, the NBA is a sport that should be used to every streakers advantage because it’s not completely random and filled with upsets. Pick your spot and remember the four things to look at: (1) Moneyline (2) Recent Record (3) Injury Reports (4) Back-to-Back Analysis
Next week, we’ll continue are research with the NBA, so that we can go in to the tail-end of the NBA Season and the NBA Playoffs with a good feeling about the props.
Is this analysis helping you at all? Please let me know by shooting me an email at email@example.com because I’m always in the mood to discuss Streak For the Cash!