Streak Journal: Heavy favorites are no sure thing in NHL props
Welcome to the third installment of my newest weekly feature. The Streak Journal will analyze a group of specific Streak for the Cash (SFTC) props from the previous week.
The purpose of this new journal is to provide streakers with a unique perspective of the props picked by ESPN’s Streakmaster and give you the straight statistics which will hopefully provide some insight to help you build a longer streak.
First Week: Beware of the NBA’s back-to-backs (Jan. 20th-26th)
Second Week: Is March Madness here early (Jan. 27th-Feb. 2nd)
This week (Monday, February 3rd through Sunday, February 9), I focused on NHL Hockey match-ups before they take a break for the 2014 Sochi Olympics and here’s what I found:
Vegas Favorite/Underdog – Lines obtained from 5dimes to determine favorite in match-ups
Streak Favorite/Underdog – Determined by the percentage chosen on each team as the prop locked up
Better Record – The team with more wins and less losses during the prop.
*These statistics are based on 36 straight-up NHL Props on ESPN’s Streak for the Cash. I can’t guarantee that this sample size will represent the entire population of future props.
STRAIGHT BUT SIMPLE NUMBERS (Don’t Pick Only on These Parameters)
Home Team 21-15
Away Team 15-21
Vegas Favorite 19-11
Vegas Underdog 11-19
Streak Favorite 23-13
Streak Underdog 13-23
Better Record 20-16
Worse Record 16-20
DON’T BE SO SURE ON HEAVY VEGAS FAVORITES
When you analyze the simple numbers, a 19-11 record with Vegas Favorites seems pretty good. The deceiving part of the equation is that four of the 11 losses came from the heaviest lines of the week (-160 or more). In fact, the favored team in three match-ups at (-180) or more was 1-2. This means that the Streakmaster seeks out games that he thinks are great value bets to win straight up from the underdog side. Streakers were fantastic this week overall (23-13), but went 4-5 in match-ups at (-160) or more. Those are some streak breakers for sure.
BACK & BACK ANALYSIS HELPS
Teams playing on back-to-back nights against those who did not went 2-8 on the week. Streakers were smart and only backed two of the teams on short rest, one of them being one of the winning teams (Detroit Red Wings on Monday who were favored by Vegas). When you analyze all the numbers, the back-to-back match-ups appear to be the best value in NHL props. On the flip-side, be cautious as this analysis could have easily went a different way because only five of the ten teams with more rest won by at least two goals, meaning that half of these games were fairly close.
This week, I learned that NHL is a sport that can be used to your advantage on streak. When the league’s Olympians return in a few weeks, make sure to fade the heavy favorites and look for those well rested teams playing a team with games on consecutive nights.
Next week, I’m going to take a look at the infamous claim of the “trap game” or “99% curse” and analyze whether there’s any truth to this notion.
Do these tips make any sense and will you avoid the heavy favorites from now on? Please let me know by commenting below.