Streak Journal: NBA could be the most predictable on SFTC
Welcome to the sixth installment of my newest weekly feature. The Streak Journal will analyze a group of specific Streak for the Cash (SFTC) props from the previous week.
The purpose of this new journal is to provide streakers with a unique perspective of the props picked by ESPN’s Streakmaster and give you the straight statistics which will hopefully provide some insight to help you build a longer streak.
First Week: Beware of the NBA’s back-to-backs (Jan. 20th-26th)
Second Week: Is March Madness here early (Jan. 27th-Feb. 2nd)
Third Week: Heavy favorites are no sure thing in NHL props (Feb. 3rd-Feb. 9th)
Fourth Week: No such thing as a 99% curse on Streak for the Cash (Feb. 10th-Feb.16th)
Fifth Week: Vegas owned college basketball on SFTC this past week (Feb. 17th -23rd)
This week (Monday, February 24th through Sunday, March 2nd), I focused on straight up NBA match-ups because the All-Star Break is over and we have a few months to hone down on the secrets behind picking this sport on Streak for the Cash. For those above reasons, I will be spending the rest of March looking at the NBA in order to build an even larger sample size:
Vegas Favorite/Underdog – Lines obtained from 5dimes to determine favorite in match-ups
Streak Favorite/Underdog – Determined by the percentage chosen on each team as the prop locked up
Better Record – The team with more wins and less losses during the prop.
*These statistics are based on 23 straight-up NBA props on ESPN’s Streak for the Cash. I can’t guarantee that this sample size will represent the entire population of future props.
STRAIGHT BUT SIMPLE NUMBERS (Don’t Pick Only on These Parameters)
Home Team 10-13
Away Team 13-10
Vegas Favorite 18-5
Vegas Underdog 5-18
Streak Favorite 15-8
Streak Underdog 8-15
Better Record 14-8
Worse Record 8-14
STREAKERS ARE DOING THEIR RESEARCH WITH THE NBA
In props designated “HOT” and “WARMER,” streakers went an impressive 10-0 this past week (Vegas also went 10-0 on these props). This means that people are doing their research and looking for the best props to jump on. This was compared to 3-2 on “Cold” and 5-3 on “Warm” match-ups.
VEGAS IS A TON OF HELP IN NBA PROPS
Here’s how the favorites in moneyline odds fared for the week:
(-100 to -149) 7-3
(-150 to -199) 6-2
(-200 to -299) 4-0
As it should be, the teams more likely to win according to Vegas had a better winning percentage when broken in to these groups. While it will never be this cut and dry every week, I think it’s becoming fairly obvious that NBA is a sport that has a lot potential in this game.
BEST RECORD AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK IS USEFUL
While the simple best record is never a parameter that should be used to pick games, the best record following the all-star break can be used to judge a recent trend of a particular team. Teams with a better record following the all-star break went 16-4 this past week. Streak is all about finding numbers that are not available to you at the surface.
When picking an NBA Prop, here’s my best advice for what to look at:
Vegas Moneyline – Anything -200 and above should be strongly considered.
Record since ASB – Compare the two teams records since the All-Star Break and avoid match-ups between two horrible teams.
Back To Back Games – A team coming off a back-to-back game doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be picked. It means use caution and take that in to account when choosing that game.
That’s all I have for now. As I continue to compile numbers, I’ll bring more conclusions to the forefront.
Is this analysis helping you at all? Please let me know by shooting me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org because I’m always in the mood to discuss Streak For the Cash!