Streak Journal: Does ESPN try to trick you with MLB Picks?
ESPN’s Streak For Cash posted 59 MLB picks (4/21-4/27) this past week to add to the 76 games I logged in the first week (4/14-4/20).
After analyzing the numbers from week two alone and the numbers as a whole, I was left with the question “Does the Streakmaster purposely pick games he thinks will stump the public?”
STATISTICAL ADVANTAGES OR “ON PAPER” WINNERS
In week one, I used five statistical parameters: Home/Away Splits, Record in Last 10 Games, Run Differential, Starting Pitcher ERA and Vegas Moneyline. I stuck with these indicators, but with a new twist.
Instead of tracking whether the team with simply the better number wins or loses, I decided to determine whether a team who has a “significant” edge in one of these categories. wins or loses (For example, a team with a run differential of 30 has an obvious edge over one with at -11). Here were the determinants and results:
H/A Splits (3 or more games better) 14-20
Record in L10 (3 or more games better) 7-11
Run Differential (10 or more runs better) 16-24
SP ERA (1.00 or greater) 14-20
Vegas Moneyline (-120 or better) 30-28
The evidence above would certainly point in the direction that the Streakmaster is purposely picking games where the numbers point towards a specific winner. Common logic would tell you that the better team would win most games, but as most of you know, that doesn’t happen nearly enough on Streak For the Cash.
VEGAS HELPS PAINT THE PICTURE
In the past, I’ve taken a deep look at NBA props during the regular season and I observed that there wasn’t any truth to the adage, “if it looks to good to be true, it probably is,” as teams favored at -200 or more commonly won. In regards to MLB Games, the results can’t refute or support the claim yet.
Week 2 Vegas Records
-100 to -110 (4-9)
-111 to -120 (10-7)
-121 to -140 (12-8)
-141 to -160 (2-5)
Weeks 1-2 Vegas Records
-100 to -110 (11-14)
-111 to -120 (21-20)
-121 to -140 (25-20)
-141 to -160 (11-9)
So, does the Streakmaster purposely put up games that he thinks will trick the public? At this time, I would have conclude no. I think he picks games he feels can go either way and some of them happen to appear lopsided. For every big upset there is, there’s also teams winning games that they should.
However, he has started to become more selective with his games. Stay tuned on whether my opinion will change.
I’ll end with my analysis with a congrats to streakers who went 33-26 (.559) in week two and are an impressive 75-60 (.556) over the past two weeks. Keep up the good research and maybe limit the amount of MLB Picks you make.
I’ll keep logging the games and lets see if we can get any closer to “27 in a row” next week!
Please let me know if you have any comments or suggestions on my research! Good Luck in MAY!