Streak Journal: Beware of the NBA’s back-to-backs
Welcome to my newest weekly piece. The Streak Jounal will analyze a group of specific Streak for the Cash (SFTC) props from the previous week.
The purpose of this new journal is to provide streakers with a unique perspective of the props picked by ESPN’s Streakmaster and give you the straight statistics which will hopefully provide some insight to help you build a longer streak.
This week (Monday, January 20 through Sunday, January 21st), I focused on straight-up NBA props and here’s what I found:
Vegas Favorite/Underdog – Lines obtained from 5dimes to determine favorite in match-ups
Streak Favorite/Underdog – Determined by the percentage chosen on each team as the prop locked up
Better Record – The team with more wins and less losses during the prop.
*These statistics are based on 29 straight-up NBA Props on ESPN’s Streak for the Cash. I can’t guarantee that this sample size will represent the entire population of future props.
STRAIGHT BUT SIMPLE NUMBERS (Don’t Pick Only on These Parameters)
Home Team 14-15
Away Team 15-14
Vegas Favorite 18-11
Vegas Underdog 11-18
Streak Favorite 17-12
Streak Underdog 12-17
Better Record 12-15
Worse Record 15-13
AVOID PROPS WITH ONE BACK-TO-BACK TEAM
ESPN loves to sneak in match-ups involving teams that are on the heels of games on back-to-back nights against a team who didn’t play the night before. In such games, the well rested team went 6-1 (the only exception was the OKC Thunder taking down the Spurs on Wednesday). The problem was that the majority of streakers incorrectly picked the game on six of the seven occasions. This is a huge difference and streak breaker for those who didn’t take notice. If you have a problem taking a “worse” team to beat a “better” team on part two of the back-to-back stretch, avoid the prop to save your streak.
VEGAS FAVORITES + STREAK UNDERDOGS ARE TEMPTING
In 10 instances, the majority of streakers ignored the NBA team with Vegas’ favorite line and went 4-6 in the process. When the Streakmaster puts a game on the board, his intentions are to end as many people’s streaks as possible. A plausible way to do this is put up a popular team with a better record against a scrappy team at home. Be careful and make sure you have a reason the Vegas underdog will win.
NETWORK GAMES ARE GOOD BETS
Another thing that the Streakmaster does is put up games which are featured on the ESPN’s Family of Networks, no matter the type of match-up. For this reason, you as a streaker could have much better odds when choosing these games. In fact, Vegas favorites went 5-2 in these such games this week.
I hope these careful observations help you build a better streak and good luck in the end of January and in to the beginning of February.
Next week, we will examine the head-to-head college basketball match-ups on ESPN’s Family of Networks with the help of kenpom.com and their useful prediction model.
Do you have a lot of success in straight up NBA Props and have anything to add to me tips? Please let me know by commenting below.