September 2, 2013 SFTC PICKS

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My Personal SFTC Record (Majority as a monthly wins player): 3,548-2,874 (.560)
Personal September SFTC Record (Felixgodnandez – monthly player): 3-4
Overall Site Picks Record: 6,593-4,939 (.572)
Overall Pick of the Day Record: 195-88 (.689)
September Overall Record: 16-10
September Stash Path Record: 1-2
August Recommended Picks Record: 3-5
September Pick of the Day Record:

Stash Path
1. Estoril
2. Rays

Recommended Picks
1. Cubs
2. Pirates
3. Estoril
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks
6. Rays

Picks to Avoid
1. Liberec/Jablonec
2. FSU/Pitt 1st half prop

1. 12:00 PM – Czech Gambrinus Liga – Liberec Win/Draw @ Jablonec Win

Slovan Liberec (Low Streak):
This is probably my least favorite pick of the day.  Jablonec is +133 to win at 5dimes, making the win/draw option favored.  Liberec is off to a hot start, but they have shown the inability to score at times.  Jablonec is also playing well right now and they’re a pretty good home squad.  I don’t think Liberec will win this match, especially because the home team has dominated this series as of late.  However, I don’t really have confidence in Jablonec to  come out on top either.  I think this match has 1-1 written all over it.  I’d definitely avoid this pick of possible.

2. 2:10 PM – Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals

Mariners (Low Streak):
The Mariners are -117 on the road with Felix Hernandez on the mound against Danny Duffy and the Royals.  August was not kind to Felix, especially his last start against the Rangers where he got shelled.  I’ve heard many people say that Felix has lost it, which is a complete joke in my eyes.  He’s had a couple bad starts lately, but his ERA is still below 3.00 and he’s been one of the best pitchers in the AL throughout the whole season.  Felix has been great on the road this season with a 2.54 ERA in 14 starts.  He has a 2.67 lifetime ERA against the Royals in 10 starts.  Duffy hasn’t allowed a run in his last 12.2 innings and has a favorable matchup against a team that struggles against LHP.  I have to go with Seattle here though, since we’re talking about a legit ace on the mound against a pitcher that isn’t really trustworthy right now.

3. 2:10 PM – Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros

Twins (Low Streak): The Twins are -120 on the road with Albers on the mound against Paul Clemons of the Astros.  This is a matchup between 2 pitchers with limited MLB experience.  Albers has made 5 career starts (all this season) and has pitched very well in 3 of those starts.  Clemons has made just 1 start where he pitched well and was pretty awful in his 15 relief appearances.  Given the fact that the Astros are awful and Clemons is unproven with terrible numbers this season, the Twins have to be the play here.

4. 2:10 PM – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

Pirates (Low Streak): The Pirates are -126 on the road with Charlie Morton on the mound against Tyler Thornburg and the Brewers.  Most of you have probably not heard of Thornburg, who was called up briefly last season for the first time.  He has made 12 appearances this season, which include 3 starts.  In those 3 starts, he has allowed just 1 earned run over 18 innings.  Charlie Morton has been on fire lately, allowing 2 runs or fewer in 5 straight starts.  He has put together a fine, but limited season so far, posting a 3.14 ERA in 14 starts.  The Pirates are a much better team than Milwaukee and have the pitching edge here.  

5. 2:20 PM – Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs 

Cubs (Low Streak/Confident): The Cubs are -144 at home with Travis Wood on the mound against Henderson Alvarez and the Marlins.  Travis Wood is having a really solid year, posting a 3.09 ERA.  He has a favorable matchup against a team that is dreadful against LHP (.227 team average).  Alvarez has struggled over his past chunk of starts, though he also has a decent matchup simply because the Cubs lineup isn’t really threatening.  This is a straight foward play for me here with the better team at home with the better pitcher.

6. 3:00 PM – Portuguese Liga – Academica Win/Draw @ Estoril Win

Estoril (Low Streak/Confident) PICK OF THE DAY: Estoril is -159 (5dimes) at home against Academica.  So far this season, Estoril has won both of their matches, while Academica has lost both of theirs.  Last season, Estoril was 9-2-4 at home with a 31-18 goal differential.  Academica was 2-5-8 on the road with 11 goals scored and 18 conceded.  Now this is obviously a different season so it doesn’t mean that last years results will be duplicated this season, but it sure has started off that way.  Estoril has won 9 of their last 11 matches in all competitions, so they seem to be in good form.  Estoril has won 2-0 in their last 2 matches against Academica.  The only thing going against Estoril here is that they’re playing their 3rd match in the last 8 days, so fatigue may be a factor.

7. Padres (Low Streak)

8. Rangers (Low Streak)

9. 4:10 PM – Toronto Blue Jays @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks (Low Streak/Confident): The Diamondbacks are -148 at home against the Blue Jays.  Toronto is a really bad road team at 27-41 and have a struggling pitcher on the mound in Esmil Rogers.  Rogers has a 5.08 ERA on the road in 8 starts and 10 relief appearances this season.  McCarthy has been inconsistent all year long, but he’s coming off a dominant home start against the Padres that may give him some confidence for this start.  He has a 3.93 ERA at home this season, compared to his 5.03 ERA overall.  Arizona is the play here.

10. 8:05 PM – Florida State Seminoles @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Florida State (Low Streak): Florida State is favored by 10 points on the road against Pittsburgh, who is making their ACC debut.  Pittsburgh couldn’t have picked a tougher conference opponent other than maybe Clemson to face in their 1st game of the season.  They face a team that has a ton more speed than them and will contend for the ACC title this season.  It will be interesting to see how Savage handles this FSU team.  FSU lost a bunch of players from last season, including their QB, EJ Manuel.  They always seem to regroup well though and should be just fine.  The only reason I’m not more confident in this game is because FSU is on the road against a team that will definitely be fired up in their first ACC game at home on national television.

11. 8:06 PM – NCF (#11 Florida State @ Pittsburgh): Which will OCCUR FIRST in the 1st Half?

Pittsburgh (Low Streak): This is a really interesting prop and one I’m pretty sure we haven’t seen before on SFTC.  Florida State is easily favored to score the first TD here, but there’s no guarantee they even will score 2 TD’s in the 1st half.  However, it’s hard to know how well Pittsburgh will be able to move the ball against this defense.  Pittsburgh may not get a TD for a while, if at all in the 1st half.  I’d guess they do, but they may not.  Pittsburgh also has the option of FSU not scoring 2 TD’s in the 1st half.  I’d lean Pittsburgh here at home in the hopes that they get on the board early or step up their game on defense.

12. Rays (Low Streak/Confident)

13. 9:50 PM – NCF (#11 Florida State @ Pittsburgh): How many POINTS will be SCORED in the 2nd Half? (No OT)

24/Fewer (Subject to change): The over/under for the game is 49 points, so this prop seems pretty accurate.  I’d wait until halftime to make this pick.  A big part of this pick will be how well Pittsburgh will be able to move the football against a solid and fast defense that FSU has.  If Pitt can show they can move the ball in the 1st half, then I may switch to the over.

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