May 28, 2013 SFTC PICKS

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1. Brasov (Low Streak/Confident): Odds- Brasov +1.5: -167  Steaua Bucharest -1.5: +130
This is the last match of the season for both teams in what seems like a pretty meaningless game for both teams.  Steaua Bucharest has already clinched 1st place in the league with 14 more points than the 2nd place team.  They are ridiculously good at home with a 14-1-1 record and 37 goals scored, compared to 12 conceded.  Based on recent results, it seems that Bucharest has packed it in already.  They are coming off a 1-1 draw on the road against a team that will be relegated.  Their match before that was a 5-2 home loss against the 13th place team.  This is also their 2nd match in 3 days, which is really rare to see.  Brasov on the other hand has won 2 straight matches, which were against the last place team and 2nd place team.  Another big statistic is that Steaua hasn’t defeated Brasov by 2+ goals in 14 straight matches dating back to 2003.  With the 1 goal cushion and Steaua Bucharest not seeming to care about these final matches, I have to like Brasov here.

2. Braves (Low Streak): The Braves are -108 on the road with Maholm on the mound against Toronto with Brandon Morrow.  Maholm is 6-4 with a 3.38 era on the season and is coming off a dominant outing at home against the Twins.  Morrow is having a bad year, especially compared to last year where he had a 2.96 era.  This year he is 2-3 with a 5.50 era in 9 starts.  What is equally concerning is his very high 1.47 WHIP, which is way up from his 1.11 WHIP from a year ago.  He has allowed 11 runs in his last 2 starts, so I’m going to trust the better team an better pitcher at the moment.

3. Yes, Both Win (Low Streak): Sligo is -200 and St. Patrick’s is -300.

4. Mets (Low Streak): The Mets are -131 at home with their ace Matt Harvey on the mound.  Harvey had his worst statistical start of the season last outing against the Reds in which he allowed 4 runs in 6.1 innings.  I think they left him in that game too long, but I’m not the manager.  Harvey is one of the best pitchers, not just young pitchers, but pitcher in baseball.  He is 5-0 with a 1.93 era.  Kuroda is coming off a start where he had to leave the game after getting hit in the leg on a come backer.  He was not sharp prior to that play in the game, though he has had a very solid season otherwise.  Despite the Mets woes, Harvey at home is usually a pretty good play.

5. Phillies (Low Streak): The Red Sox are -117 here, but I like the Phillies here at +108 on the road.  The pitching matchup easily favors the Phllies here, but my main concern is the lack of run support that Phillies pitchers often get.  Cliff Lee is 5-2 with a 2.48 era and has allowed 4 runs combined over his last 4 starts en route to 4 straight Phillies wins.  Lee also has a 1.68 era on the road in 6 starts this season. The Red Sox are hitting just .238 against LHP this season, which is 20th in the MLB.  Ryan Dempster got off to a great start this season, up until his last 3 outings.  he has allowed 15 runs in his last 12.2 innings.  With the way these 2 pitchers are going right now, I’ll take Lee and the Phillies.

6. Brewers (Low Streak)

7. Heat (Low Streak): This game should be a lot closer than game 3, but I think the Heat may have figured some things out…I wouldn’t touch this game though.

8. 12/Fewer (Low Streak): Lebron is averaging 5.3 FGM in the 1st half against Indiana this series.  Wade and Bosh are both averaging 3.0 FGM in the 1st half against Indiana this series.  That combines for 11.3 FGM.

9. Kings (Low Streak/Confident): The home team has won all 6 games this series and I fully expect this trend to continue.

10. 7/Fewer (Low Streak): These 2 teams are averaging a combined 7.0 3’s per 2nd half this series.  The Pacers are not a strong 3 point shooting team at all, while the Heat have plenty of capable 3 point shooters.  I think the safe play here is 7/fewer, unless a few guys have the hot hand in the 1st half.

11. Athletics (Low Streak)

12. Dodgers (Low Streak): I fade Blanton pretty often, unless there is a strong reason not to.

13. Mariners (Low Streak)

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