June 8, 2013 SFTC PICKS

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I’m going to have a much more detailed thread this month, including a stash path, pick of the day, recommended picks, and picks that I feel are the weakest of the day.  Here are my records since July 2011 when I started posting picks on 27inarow.com.  Please feel free to let me know if you would like anything else included in this thread.  I am not going to include a monthly wins path, but you can assume many of those picks anyway just by looking at my picks.

My Personal SFTC Record (Majority as a monthly wins player): 3,373-2,618 (.563)
Overall Site Picks Record: 5,954-4,465 (.572)
Overall Pick of the Day Record: 182-84 (.684)
June Overall Record: 69-68
June Stash Path Record: 8-3
June Recommended Picks Record: 21-14
June Pick of the Day Record: 5-2
Personal June SFTC Record: 21-28-1

Stash Path
1. Serena 2-0
2. North Carolina
3. Blackhawks

Recommended Picks
1. Serena 2-0
2. Ethiopia
3. North Carolina
4. Rangers
5. Blackahwks

Weak Picks to Avoid
1. Virginia/Miss St.
2. Ivory Coast HT/FT
3. Orioles/Rays

1. Serena 2-0 (Confident) PICK OF THE DAY: Serena is -250 to win this match in straight sets. She is simply on another level than everyone on tour right now, even Sharapova.  Serena has won 13 of 15 matches against Sharapova and 10 of those came by straight sets.  They have not played each other on clay since 2008, but Serena won all 3 clay matches and 2 of them in 2 sets.  Serena is coming off what was basically a perfect match against a good clay court player in Errani.  She was able to win 6-0 6-1 in the semifinals, which is pretty rare.  Sharapova on the other hand had problems with Azarenka, but that isn’t something to be ashamed of.  What worries me a lot about Maria is that she is having serious issues with her second serve.  She had at least 10 double faults last match.  She will have no shot whatsoever if she can’t get her serves in against Serena.  For Serena not to win this match in 2 sets, she is going to have to be off her game.

2. Ethiopia (Low Streak/Confident): Botswana is +140 to win this match at home against Ethiopia.  Botswana has not won a WCQ match since 2008, which spans 7 matches.  Ethiopia was able to defeat Botswana 1-0 at home on March 24th.  They have 3 wins and 2 draws over their last 5 WCQ matches.

3. North Carolina (Low Streak/Confident): UNC is -190.

4. Yes leads and wins (Low Streak): Ivory coast is about +105 to be leading at halftime and -185 to win the match.  It’s pretty safe to say Ivory Coast will win this match.  I’m hoping they get that early goal and lead 1-0 at haltime.  Gambia is not good at all.

5. Virginia (Low Streak)

6. Rangers (Low Streak/Confident): The Rangers are -150 on the road with their ace on the mound.  Darvish is having a very strong season so far with a 7-2 record and 2.77 era.  He leads the MLB in strikeouts and has a 0.93 WHIP.  I’m past the point in Buehrle’s career where I can trust him against an offense like the Rangers.

7. Harris English (Low Streak)

8. Vanderbilt (Low Streak): Vandy -1.5: -135

9. Cubs (Low Streak): The Cubs are -114 at home with Samardzija on the mound.  He should be happy he’s facing the Pirates because he has owned them in his career.  He’s faced them 15 times, but just 4 times as a starter.  In these outings, he has a 0.98 era and 0.67 WHIP.  He allowed 1 run in 7 innings on the road at Pittsburgh on May 22.  Burnett has been much better at home than on the road this year.

10. NC State (Low Streak)

11. Tigers (Low Streak): The Tigers absolutely own Masterson.  They have 8 players that are hitting over .300 in their careers against Masterson.  Masterson also has an era over 5 on the road this season.  Porcello has been pretty good this season outside a couple of really bad starts.

12. Athletics (Low Streak) 

13. Rays (Low Streak): Too many questions with Gausman with this being his 4th career start, 2 being bad so far and his last one being solid.  Hellickson has always pitched well against Baltimore with a 7-3 record and 3.31 era.

14. TBD- Belmont

15. Phillies (Low Streak): Tom Gorzelanny is making his first start of the season and just his 2nd start since 2011.  He was originally a starter, but has come out of the bullpen the past 2 seasons.  He’s been very solid out of the bullpen, but who knows how he will pitch as a starter again.  Kyle Kendrick has allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts this season.  He has a 2.31 era on the road in 5 starts this season.  Kendrick is coming off his 2nd complete game of the season.  The pitching matchup definitely goes to the Phillies here.

16. Reds (Low Streak): Mat Latos is 5-0 with a 2.90 era this season.  He shutout the Cards on the road over 6 innings on April 29th.  Latos is coming off back to back outings in which he allowed 1 run over 6 innings.  Tyler Lyons has been pretty good over the first 3 starts of his career.  He is 2-1 with a 2.66 era and pitched great in both of his road starts.  However, Latos at home is a pretty tough to go against.

17. Blackhawks (Low Streak): I’m really rooting for the Kings to make this a series, but I can’t pick them to win this game on the road in Chicago.  They blew their chance by not taking care of business at home, which they have done all postseason.

18. Kane/Hossa/No Goal (Low Streak): Kane and Hossa are obviously big scoring threats for the Blackhawks.  The no goal option could definitely come into play if Quick is on his game.

19. No Kings goal (Low Streak): They likely won’t be scoring much this game, but we’ll see how the 1st  periods plays out.

20. Diamondbacks (Low Streak)

21. Sounders (Low Streak)

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