June 5, 2013 SFTC PICKS

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I’m going to have a much more detailed thread this month, including a stash path, pick of the day, recommended picks, and picks that I feel are the weakest of the day.  Here are my records since July 2011 when I started posting picks on 27inarow.com.  Please feel free to let me know if you would like anything else included in this thread.  I am not going to include a monthly wins path, but you can assume many of those picks anyway just by looking at my picks.

My Personal SFTC Record (Majority as a monthly wins player): 3,347-2,588 (.564)
Overall Site Picks Record: 5,948-4,455 (.572)
Overall Pick of the Day Record: 181-82 (.688)
June Overall Record: 44-35
June Stash Path Record: 7-1
June Recommended Picks Record: 15-5
June Pick of the Day Record: 4-0
Personal June SFTC Record: 10-16-1

Stash Path
1. Sharapova 2-0

Recommended Picks
1. Sharapova
2. Angels
3. England U21 (hesitant to put this on here)
4. France

Weak Picks to Avoid
1. Too many to write honestly..I don’t like a ton of picks today.

1. Sharapova (Confident) PICK OF THE DAY: Maria Sharapova is playing as well or better than anyone in the French Open right now.  I say that because Serena looked pretty awful for much of her match yesterday against Kuznetsova.  Jelena Jankovic happens to be in very good form right now, but she’s going to need a lot of help from Sharapova if she is going to have a shot at winning this match or even win a set.  These 2 have met 8 times with Sharapova winning 7 of those matches.  She most recently defeated Jankovic 6-2 6-1, but that was on hard court.  They actually have never met on clay court.  I think Jankovic is better on on clay than on hard when she plays Sharapova, but I feel that Sharapova will have to be well off her game for Jankovic to steal a set here.

2. Yes Loses 5+ in a set (Low Streak): Nadal owns Wawrinka, winning all 9 matches against him.  Wawrinka has never even won a set off Nadal.  He has reached the 5 game mark in 5 of their 18 total sets and 2 times out of 8 on clay courts.  Nadal beat Wawrinka on clay court 6-2 6-4 earlier this year.  Wawrinka is coming off an impressive come from behind win against Gasquet that went the distance.  Nadal is in a groove right now and doesn’t seem to be able to be stopped.  He will probably win this in straight sets, but Wawrinka is capable of making 1 of these sets competitive.

3. Braves (Low Streak)

4. Athletics (Low Streak)

5. England (Low Streak/Confident)

6. France (Low Streak/Confident)

7. Blue Jays (Low Streak): I know Zito has a 1.40 era at home this year, but the a bunch of Blue Jays playes have had good success against him in the past.  Zito allowed 5 runs in 5.2 innings in a loss to the Jays earlier this season.  Dickey has had 2 awful starts in a row, but he was able to defeat the Giants already this year, striking out 10 batters.

8. Rangers (Low Streak)

9. No Red Sox run (Low Streak): Ogando shut down the Red Sox at home on May 4th, allowing 1 run in 6 innings.  He only allowed 6 hits and 2 walks in that start.  The Red Sox exploded for 17 runs last night, but teams that do that often cool down the following day.  Either way, I think Ogando has a solid outing.  He’s had a very good year so far with a 3.08 era and that’s with 7 of his starts coming on the road.

10. Angels (Low Streak/Confident)

11. Nationals (Low Streak)

12. Tigers (Low Streak)

13. Crew (Low Streak)

14. No HR (Low Streak): Only 2 players on the Red Sox have HR’s off of Ogando.  Only 2 players on the Rangers have HR’s off of Lackey and one of those players is Kinsler who is on the DL.  The other is Beltre who is dealing with hamstring issues and may not even play.

15. Penguins (Low Streak): The Bruins are in total control of this series up 2-0 and now have home ice.  They have dominated this series so far, especially in game 2 where their offense exploded.  They are -111 in this game, but I’m going with the Penguins here.  I just can’t see them going down 3-0.

16. No, at least 1 team does not score (Low Streak): No need to look up odds or anything here.  I don’t even care what happened in game 1.  No has to be more likely here.

17. No XBH (Low Streak): Wait for lineups/pitching matchups to see if this pick remains as it is.

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