Fun With Lines: 2014 NFL MVP Edition

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Fun With Lines: 2014 NFL MVP Edition

In my newest feature, I take a look a at a specific bet and break down the lines to provide some entertainment and insight on how to make some money. Future bets are extremely underrated in my opinion as there’s always some value to be obtained.

The 2014 NFL MVP is the most prestigious individual award and like most awards in football has been taken over by the quarterback position. A signal-caller has taken home the honor in six of the past seven seasons.

2013 – QB Peyton Manning (+500 overall favorite)
2012 – RB Adrian Peterson (+1200)
2011 – QB Aaron Rodgers (+550 overall favorite)
2010 – QB Tom Brady (+1000)
2009 – QB Peyton Manning (+600)
2008 – QB Peyton Manning (+500)
2007 – QB Tom Brady (Not sure on odds)

Favorites Unlikely to Win

Peyton Manning (+300) – Is it really most likely that Manning wins his sixth career MVP and his fourth in the past seven years? He’s 38 years old and needs to follow up a year where he threw an NFL-record 55 touchdowns and 5,477 passing yards. Add in the fact that voters don’t typically like repeat winners and this doesn’t seem like a smart bet.

Tom Brady (+900) – The biggest detriment to Brady adding another MVP award is the lack of receivers in New England. Stud tight end Rob Gronkowski has yet to prove he can return to health and the Patriots haven’t had a decent pass-catching body since Randy Moss. Brady’s career seems to be dwindling fast.

Where the Money Is

Drew Brees (+550) – Voters won’t admit it, but I think they love to give the award to a new player when possible. Brees came so close in 2011 and was narrowly edged out by the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers. New Orleans has a young team and we know Brees will have the numbers in a pass-happy offense.

Aaron Rodgers (+750) – Did you see how bad the Green Bay Packers were without Rodgers last year? It’s crystal clear that Rodgers is one of the most valuable players to this team and can be for the league if Green Bay has a big year.

Andrew Luck (+1600) – Luck is basically the Peyton Manning of the next era. His intelligence and consistently good play will make him a great candidate to become one of the faces of the NFL. As long as the Colts win some games, Luck will get some votes for the MVP Award.

Matt Ryan (+3300) – I think this is the best value of the bunch because the Falcons currently have a bad public perception after a horrible season. However, Ryan played most of the year without his best weapon in Julio Jones and he’s an above-average signal caller.

Feeling Lucky

LeSean McCoy (+2500) – Adrian Peterson had to literally carry his team in to the playoffs in 2011 and the award was still in doubt. McCoy was unbelievable last season and he wasn’t even close to eclipsing Manning for the award.

Calvin Johnson (+2500) – A wide receiver has never won the award, so it would take quite the season for this to happen. Megatron has proven to make Matthew Stafford look better, so he does have that going for him.

Other Notable (QB) Lines

Jay Cutler/Matthew Stafford (+2000)C. Newon/C. Kapernick/R. Wilson/RG3 (+2500)
Nick Foles (+4000)
B. Roesthlisberger/E. Manning/P. Rivers/T. Romo (+5000)
J. Flacco/J. Manziel/A. Dalton (+10000)
Alex Smith (+15000)

Where would you put your money? Please let me know by shooting me an email at grays@uwalumni.com or connecting with me on twitter at @NickGrays44.

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