Fun With Lines: 2014 Home Run Derby Edition
In my newest feature, I take a look a at a specific bet and break down the lines to provide some entertainment and insight on how to make some money. Future bets are extremely underrated in my opinion as there’s always some value to be obtained.
This time around, we take a look at the lines for the winner of the 2014 Home Run Derby which takes place at the beautiful Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Because the Streak For The Cash props have been already released, it’s a bonus to provide insight on them.
Without babbling on about any of the background or last year’s winner, Yoenis Cespedes, here are the lines courtesy bovada:
Giancarlo Stanton (+250)
Yasiel Puig (+500)
Troy Tulowitzki (+700)
Justin Morneau (+1200)
Todd Frazier (+1200)
Yoenis Cespedes (+450)
Jose Bautista (+500)
Josh Donaldson (+900)
Adam Jones (+1400)
Brian Dozier (+1400)
Target Field Can Be Smashed
In Target Field’s short time in the MLB, it’s gained a reputation as a pitcher’s park. That hasn’t been the case this year as a terrible Twins team has given up 70 home runs and ranked 10th in the league with a 1.100 home-run factor (a stat that compares all of the parks in the league). Here are the dimensions for possible home-runs:
Left Field Line (8 ft. wall) – 339 feet
Right Field Line (23 ft. wall) – 328 feet
Left-Center – 377 feet
Right-Center (tall wall) – 367 feet
Center – 404 feet
SFTC Props, YAY!
1.) Who will WIN THE CONTEST? (Stanton, Cespedes or Puig vs. AOP)
Odds wise, you have to pick the favorites when you receive all three of them. As I described above, the park will see a lot of home runs and those with significant power will have an edge because they can hit anywhere in the park. With the new bracket format (American vs. National), there’s a great chance Stanton or Puig come out of the National League side.
Confidence – 7/10
2.) Which player will record more HOME RUNS in Round 1? (Tulowitzki/tie or Bautista)
The tie option is fairly unlikely, so I like Bautista in this prop because he’s more of a home-run hitter than Tulowitzki.
Confidence – 5/10
3.) Will BOTH AMERICAN LEAGUE batters HIT 4 or More HOME RUNS in Round 2? (Yes or No)
Like I said in my spiel about the ballpark, I don’t think home runs will be hard to come by. However, it’s worth noting here that the participants in round two will not be the winners from round one as the leader from both leagues gets a direct bye to the semifinals. For that reason, confidence won’t be as high on yes.
Confidence – 4/10
4.) How many TOTAL HOME RUNS will be HIT in Round 3? (4 batters) (20/fewer or 21+)
For those not good at math, each participant needs to average a little over five home runs to make this prop go over. Keep in mind that the winners of round one from each respective league will be fresh off a bye from the second round. For that reason, I like the over on this one.
Confidence – 7/10
5.) A batter from which LEAGUE will WIN the HOME RUN DERBY? (National or American League)
Because of the new bracket format, this is a complete toss-up. If you don’t want to take multiple picks for this event, go with the first prop as Stanton or Puig should be in the mix. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I would side with those two, so National League it is.
Confidence – 4/10
Who do you have winning the 2014 Home Run Derby at Target Field? Please let me know by shooting me an email at email@example.com or connecting with me on twitter at @NickGrays44.
Other Installments of FUN WITH LINES: