2013 NFL Futures: Preseason Super Bowl Winner Plays
The 2013 NFL season is approaching quickly and sportsbooks around the country are eagerly anticipating the loads of money that American football brings in. One of the most popular forms of betting on the NFL is via future bets. In fact, it’s quite perplexing why more people don’t invest in these specific bets because quite frankly the odds are tremendously better than playing any form of lottery (why do so many people play Powerball?).
Here at 27inarow we want to help you make more money so we’ve put together a preview series with each type of future bet (Super Bowl winners, Player Award winners as well as regular season player props).
Before we delve into 5Dimes Sportsbook and their 2013 NFL Future odds, let’s take a look at the previous five Super Bowl winners and what kind of odds they faced near the end of the summer (compliments of SportsOddsHistory.com).
2012 – Baltimore Ravens (+1600, tied for 6th among NFL teams)
2011 – New York Giants (+2000, tied for 11th)
2010 – Green Bay Packers (+1400, tied for 6th)
2009 – New Orleans Saints (+2000, tied for 9th)
2008 – Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000, tied for 7th)
We could extrapolate this even more, but it’s obvious that the favorite to win the Super Bowl pretty much never wins. Parity in the league is more existent than ever and injuries play such a big role in the NFL. You have to go all the way back to 2006 to get a Super Bowl winner who also was the preseason favorite (Indianapolis Colts at +600). In recent history, not even one of the top five teams by preseason odds have won the Super Bowl. With the small history lesson in mind, let’s take a look at good bets to win this year:
2013 NFL Futures Odds As of July13th per 5Dimes Sportsbook
*I’ll list the top ten teams because I think it’s a bit silly to bet on teams outside of that. Yes, the Giants have been the exception in 2011 and 2007 (tied for 15th at +3000), but the Super Bowl Winner typically comes from one of those teams.
Denver Broncos (+600)
San Francisco 49ers (+700)
New England Patriots (+800)
Seattle Seahawks (+850)
Green Bay Packers (+1000)
Atlanta Falcons (+1500)
Houston Texans (+1700)
New Orleans Saints (+1900)
Baltimore Ravens (+2350)
New York Giants (+2700)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2700)
If recent history serves right and trends continue, let’s throw out the top five favorites because they just haven’t won. I’m not saying they can’t, but it hasn’t happened and you win more money with value picks anyways. I also think we can throw out the Baltimore Ravens because we haven’t had back-to-back winners since the Patriots in 2003 (+1500, tied for 8th) and 2004 (+600, 2nd).
That leaves the Falcons, Texans, Saints, Giants and Steelers who all have great value in regards to Preseason Super Bowl winner plays.
We could go back and forth all day about which of these teams is closer to winning it all, but if I had to choose two of these teams, I would sternly go with the Falcons and Texans.
27inarow Blogger Nick Grays recommends playing:
Atlanta Falcons (+1500) – These are great odds for the number one seed in the NFC playoffs last year. The division isn’t much better (Tampa Bay and Carolina are still developing) and the Falcons are still loaded with talent. They upgraded at running back with the workhorse Steven Jackson coming over in free agency and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan looks to build on what was an improved defense during his first season with the team. I tend to favor teams who don’t change schemes and have players used to what’s going on.
Houston Texans (+1700) – Now that the Texans have put together a couple of double-digit win seasons, they are ready to make that next step from making the playoffs to playing in the Super Bowl. J.J. Watt is quite possibly the best defensive player in the league and they added a useful weapon in the NFL Draft in wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. What I love about the Texans is that their offensive line is arguably the best in the NFL and the ability to run in the playoffs is a scary attribute to have.
After all of that, I hope my insight helps you win some money this NFL season. Do you agree that the Falcons and Texans are smart plays for the upcoming season? Let me know by commenting below.
*Image obtained from athlonsports.com