2013 NFL Futures: Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner Play
In part two of 27inarow’s exclusive look at NFL Future Bets, we examine the top candidates for the Offensive Rookie of the Year. If you didn’t catch part one, take a look at what two teams we recommended putting your money on for the 2013 Super Bowl.
Next to the MVP award, the Rookie of the Year Award is probably the most talked about honor given out at the end of the regular season. The NFL has undoubtedly become a young man’s game and each and every year has a compelling controversy between a few of the league’s new shining stars.
Here’s the last four winners and their odds ranking going into the year (courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.com):
2012 – Robert Griffin III (+400, 2nd behind Andrew Luck at +225)
2011 – Cam Newton (+400, tied for 1st with Julio Jones)
2010 – Sam Bradford (+500, tied for 5th)
2009 – Percy Harvin (+1200, tied for 7th)
Take away Harvin who emerged from a relatively weak performing rookie class in 2009 and you have three quarterbacks. Everyone knows the quarterbacks get all the credit and it’s no fluke that they’ve won the last three offensive rookie of the year awards. Heck, RG3 had Alfred Morris who was downright amazing with 1,613 yards as a rookie and yet Morris had no shot at the award.
RG3 and Harvin were the two players to make the playoffs (10-6 and NFC East champs, 12-4 and NFC North champs), so being on a winning team isn’t necessarily a prerequisite to winning the award. Bradford’s 2010 team went 7-9 and Newton’s 2011 team went 6-10.
With those trends in mind, let’s look at this year’s top candidates (courtesy of 5dimes Sportsbook):
1.) RB Montee Ball (+500)
2.) WR Tavon Austin (+650)
3.) RB LeVeon Bell (+900)
4.) WR DeAndre Hopkins (+1000)
5.) RB Eddie Lacy (+1000)
6.) QB Geno Smith (+1200)
7.) TE Tyler Eifert (+1200)
8.) WR Cordarrelle Patterson (+1500)
9.) RB/WR Denard Robinson (+1500)
10.) WR Justin Hunter (+1500)
As you can see, the odds of a quarterback winning aren’t every good this year. EJ Manual (+2000) of the Buffalo Bills is the other possibility and believe it or not is more likely to win the starting job than the Jets’ Geno Smith. Instead, we’re looking at a year where a wide-out or running back should win the rookie of the year award.
I prefer going with one of the wide receivers because none of these running backs are going to be workhorses for their respective teams. I agree with the oddsmakers that Ball is the most likely of the bunch if it was a back because he will be part of a great team led by Peyton Manning in Denver. However, the two top wide-outs in Austin and Hopkins enter huge roles in St. Louis and Houston respectively.
27inarow Blogger Nick Grays recommends playing:
Tavon Austin (+650) – Like the oddsmakers, I like Austin slightly more than Hopkins because he will be the main guy in St. Louis. Hopkins will receive plenty of love, but in large part because of all-pro Andre Johnson on the other side of the field. Austin is an explosive player who reminds me a lot of Percy Harvin (’09 ROTY winner) and has reportedly gained the trust of Sam Bradford already. Moreover, I don’t see the Rams being a playoff team, but Austin could at least make them competitive because their defense was far from broken last year. As long as Tavon can stay healthy, there’s no reason the rookie can’t approach 80 catches and 1,000 yards.
After all of that, I hope my insight helps you win some money this NFL season. Do you agree that Tavon Austin is the most likely to win the OROTY Award? Let me know by commenting below.
*Image obtained from blacksportsonline.com